Long term prognosis for Russian economic development 2007 2030.
Report of the Institute of Economic Prognostication of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The Laws of Long Term Techno-Economic Development.
The specifics of current economic development.
It is characteristic to modern economic development that scientific progress and intellectual factors are playing even
bigger roles in modern economics than they did in the 20th century. In modern industrial countries, 70-85% of GNP growth can be attributed to the implementation of new
intellectual products to technology, industrial machinery, education of labor and administration [18, 12]. The contribution of innovation to GNP growth of highly
developed industrial countries is rapidly increasing. For instance, in the USA, the contribution of innovations to GNP growth changed
from 31% in the 1980s to 34% in 2000. For Japan this data is 30.6% and 42.3% respectively, while for Europe the numbers are 45.5%
and 50%. Innovations have become a key factor in global competition, as they allow corporations to collect intellectual rent coming from monopolistic implementation of these innovations.
- The characteristic feature of the fifth techno-economic structure is extremely rapid development of its key element – the computer.
During the ripe phase of the fifth techno-economic structure, catching up with the leaders requires a large investment on the part of
Russia's national economy, while importing technical products provides a quick and easy way to satisfy economic demand, leaving
no opportunity for national industry. That means that development of the fifth techno-economic structure in Russia is merely an imitation.
The long-term rhythm of techno-economic development indicates that the fifth techno-economic structure will reach its peak in the second
decade of the 21st century. At that time key elements of the new sixth techno-economic structure, forming today, will be fully developed. The key elements of the sixth techno-economic structure can be observed even now: biotechnology (based on molecular biology and gene
engineering), nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, global information networks and integrated high-speed transport systems. The US
National Science Foundation predicts that in 2015 the yearly market of nanotechnology will reach $1 trillion. Beginning in 2020, the sixth
techno-economic structure will start to grow very rapidly. Information technology from education, R&D and education and management
through CALS (computer aided logistics support) will propagate into the agriculture and health industries
The necessity of overcoming the enormous technological gap between developing countries and the highly developed ones will require an
intense effort on the part of the developing countries to increase their competitiveness. This is impossible without state support.
Concentrating the financial reserves derived from the export of natural resources may allow developing countries to overcome this gap by
bypassing the building of the infrastructure of the fifth techno- economic structure and beginning to build the sixth one; however, this can
happen only while the imminent transition between techno-economic structures and corresponding crisis is taking place. For developing
countries, the only way to achieve this goal is not to follow the trajectory of development, but to build elements key to the coming sixth
techno-economic structure and form new trajectories of development.